| Given the inadequate justification for Long Tail | | | | be worthy of public interest. That is, the supply |
| Theory, it stands to reason that some model will | | | | and demand element of economics will still apply |
| eventually emerge that will help forecast digital | | | | to the availability of music. We will still see pockets |
| music sales. In addition, there will be a new | | | | of interest develop for those styles and tastes |
| generation of services that will help to fill the | | | | that are sufficient to sustain the underlying musical |
| current void that exists between artists who are | | | | infrastructure required to produce the music. |
| selling millions of downloads and artists who are | | | | Stated in terms of the absurd, there will be no |
| selling hundreds of downloads. | | | | demand for silence. Of course, I believed there |
| Briefly, the Long Tail Theory is the idea that high | | | | would be no demand for bottled water. |
| distribution (the head) representing the hit songs | | | | Among all of the available services offered at this |
| will be outnumbered by the lower distributions of | | | | writing, I see two glaring voids. One is the |
| infrequent sellers of digital songs. The sales data | | | | availability of money to help artists obtain services |
| for 2008 contradicts the theory as there were | | | | and the other is organization. |
| 10M of 13M digital songs that had zero sales. | | | | While I may be wrong, I don't believe there is |
| There was no tail. In addition, the major problem | | | | much funding available to artists in the middle of |
| with the theory is justifying the necessary | | | | the spectrum. Otherwise, there is only bartering |
| resources to produce such songs with very low | | | | for services, which is not necessarily bad, but it is |
| returns. Additionally, the theory seems to ignore | | | | extremely inefficient as it requires a mutually |
| mass psychology applied to buying behaviors as | | | | beneficial, or symbiotic relationship to exist. For |
| well as it applies to establishing social commonality. | | | | anyone who has ever struggled to find a new |
| I believe that the more accurate sales model | | | | band member or collaborator, it should be clear |
| would resemble a wedge with a notch taken out | | | | that it is not easy. Many social networks are |
| of the middle. Furthermore, I believe that the | | | | becoming available and they are in part, designed |
| model wants to become a perfect wedge in a | | | | to help people find other people. This is a good |
| perfectly market driven, capitalist environment. | | | | thing, but it is still a difficult process that |
| The notch represents the flaws in our market | | | | frequently does not produce quick results or any |
| driven, capitalist environment, or the degree to | | | | results at all. |
| which our system does not follow the more | | | | This brings us back to the money element. The |
| idealistic capitalistic model. To be clear, the notch | | | | availability of money can help produce results that |
| represents the absence of elements for those | | | | are much more efficient which is why there is |
| residing in the tail end available only to those | | | | currently a disparity between the haves and the |
| residing in the head end such as promotion | | | | have-nots in the music industry. |
| budgets and organization. | | | | While bartering for services is a wonderful thing, |
| First of all, there is a good reason why the | | | | there is also an absence of organization. The new |
| distribution would resemble a perfect wedge in a | | | | social networks provide a forum, but I don't see |
| complete vacuum of overriding economic forces. | | | | much in the way of organization. There is a need |
| It is actually very simple. The Gaussian distribution | | | | for people who will help bring others together. In a |
| is well known to most people who have ever | | | | bartering system, as with a band, there are |
| been graded on a curve in school. It is the idea | | | | human dynamics that can be quite productive but |
| that a small percentage of students will make A's, | | | | can also be quite counterproductive. It becomes |
| a somewhat larger percentage of students will | | | | counterproductive when the inevitable power |
| make B's, most of the students will make C's, a | | | | struggles do not always turn out in a positive |
| percentage resembling the B's will make D's on | | | | way. This is the nature of having bands and I |
| the opposite end, and a percentage resembling | | | | believe it is the nature of creating collaborations. |
| the A's on the opposite end will make F's. It | | | | There is a need for moderation and organization |
| represents a naturally occurring phenomenon that | | | | that must either be inherent to the members or |
| applies to many elements of society in general. I | | | | provided by a capable individual either within the |
| submit that it also applies to the quality of | | | | band or on the outside. Of those who are |
| available music. The problem is that this distribution | | | | currently successful in their attempt to break out, |
| does not represent the current sales distribution. | | | | I would argue that it would not require much |
| Why? Because the system is designed only to | | | | analysis to determine that one deserving person |
| select those songs deemed as airworthy and | | | | was the driving force behind the success. This is |
| have a potential to become a hit in the opinion of | | | | often times a member of the band, but it is a |
| an Artist and Repertoire professional. This is one | | | | crap shoot because the right person must have |
| of the economic forces that distort the natural | | | | the necessary skills, drive, and personality to |
| distribution. That is, in a perfect world, the sales | | | | make it all happen. |
| distribution would resemble the distribution of | | | | Again, the good news is that these services will |
| quality in songs. That is, the higher the quality, the | | | | hopefully become available for others to use. The |
| more sales. Some may argue that in a perfect | | | | problem becomes compensation for services. |
| world, there would be no politics surrounding the | | | | This is a very touchy subject, but I believe that it |
| selection of artists, no favors or payola, or no | | | | has two answers. The first answer is flat fees |
| disparity in power. But, it is the game that we call | | | | paid up front. There are many services offered |
| life and there is no changing it overnight. In other | | | | today that require your money before you can |
| words, those of us who happen to like free | | | | participate. There is nothing wrong with this |
| enterprise, which remains the basis for any of us | | | | model, if the services provided are worthy of the |
| to dream of success, tend to accept the good | | | | cost. The second answer is the promise of fees |
| with the bad. | | | | paid upon the success of a client. While there are |
| The good news is that the "notch" represents | | | | many examples of how artists have been |
| opportunity. There are now people who are | | | | exploited, I believe that a new generation of |
| helping each other to overcome the disparity in | | | | pay-based-on-performance type organizations will |
| resources. There are collaborations and services | | | | help fill the notch. These organizations will operate |
| offered to help others achieve their dreams. | | | | with much less overhead and be willing to accept |
| The bad news is that the system is in a state of | | | | less in the way of percentages for their |
| rapid change and it will take a while for certain | | | | assistance. |
| folks to emerge as legitimate providers of | | | | I believe these new opportunities will result in the |
| services and assistance with a proven track | | | | emergence of two new careers in the music |
| record. In the meantime, there will be many who | | | | business. First, there will be a demand for a new |
| will be disappointed by some of the "resources" | | | | generation of independent business managers who |
| that are becoming available on a daily basis. It is a | | | | will help to fill the current void that I refer to as |
| natural process in a period of great opportunity to | | | | the notch. The more capable managers will have a |
| have many people attempt to provide services | | | | unique skill set to include an understanding of |
| and then have an adjustment when the supply | | | | music, the music business, project management, |
| exceeds demand and then an eventual settling | | | | human dynamics, sales, marketing, negotiation, |
| into some form of balance or equilibrium. This | | | | contracts, recording, distribution, etc. Second, |
| equilibrium will become the model for determining | | | | there will be a demand for money that may |
| the balance of supply and demand of services as | | | | come from endowments as well as independent |
| well as the eventual basis to model and predict | | | | investments. I believe that funds will be available |
| sales. | | | | to deserving artists who have demonstrated their |
| So, I submit that the equilibrium of sales | | | | commitment and have reasonable music collateral. |
| distribution will eventually look more like a wedge | | | | Given the current state of the economy and the |
| in terms of percentage and frequency of sales. | | | | uncertainty among more traditional investment |
| The notch will eventually be filled by folks who are | | | | strategies, there are fewer alternatives for |
| willing to offer assistance to others at terms that | | | | investing. While it is not for everyone, there are |
| are in direct proportion to the risk/reward. This | | | | some who might consider investing in the careers |
| sales distribution will try to match the naturally | | | | of artists. |
| occurring quality distribution. | | | | In closing, this is all speculative at best. However, |
| What about niche markets? I believe that some | | | | it does have historical significance as it mirrors the |
| niche markets will become viable, but others will | | | | development of niche services in other segments |
| be lost in obscurity. I submit that pure silence | | | | of our economy. The emergence of services for |
| might be considered a niche market if we | | | | the computer industry would be a very good |
| consider a ridiculous spectrum of styles and | | | | example. While I don't know with 100% certainty, |
| tastes. That is, some people prefer to hear | | | | I am hopeful that a reasonable model will emerge |
| nothing, but will they pay for it? I think not. This | | | | that will help to provide more work for deserving |
| absurd idea is presented only to offer an | | | | artists. |
| argument that only certain styles and tastes will | | | | |